Under the Independent Advisory Panel's proposed map, now before the Legislature. All results replay the 2023 election on these boundaries.
Votes here count about the same as the average Alberta vote. On the 2023 vote it is safe (UCP +26.8), where the Commission's Lethbridge-East was competitive (UCP +1.7). About 16% of its residents voted in a 2023 riding the NDP won.
Each MLA represents a group of people. In a riding with fewer people than average, each vote carries more weight. On the panel's map, a vote here counts 1.02× the average: more than in 64 of the other 90 ridings.
The black tick marks the average (1.00×). Weight = average riding population ÷ this riding's population, using current population estimates: the panel's and the Commission's own figures, and for the 2023 ridings, 2021 census counts scaled to the same estimates. For the first two maps it is averaged over this riding's current residents. Older ridings that have grown a lot since they were drawn show low weights; that imbalance is one reason ridings are redrawn.
The same 2023 ballots, counted three ways: in the riding most of these residents voted in, in the closest Commission riding, and in this riding.
| 2023 riding (mostly Cardston-Siksika) | Commission (mostly Lethbridge-East) | Panel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Result on 2023 votes | Wins | Wins | Wins |
| Share of the UCP+NDP vote | 81% | 51% | 63% |
| Votes that didn't affect the result | 38% | 2% | 21% |
| Province-wide vote needed to win here | 24% | 54% | 41% |
| 2023 riding (mostly Cardston-Siksika) | Commission (mostly Lethbridge-East) | Panel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Result on 2023 votes | Loses | Loses | Loses |
| Share of the UCP+NDP vote | 19% | 49% | 37% |
| Votes that didn't affect the result | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Province-wide vote needed to win here | 76% | 46% | 59% |
Voters for other parties and independents win this seat on none of the three maps. "Province-wide vote needed" is the party's share of the UCP+NDP vote across Alberta at which it would take this seat, assuming every riding moves by the same amount.
Cities 47% (Lethbridge) · Towns and villages 14% · Rural areas and First Nations 38%. Share of residents, 2021 census. Sherwood Park and Fort McMurray count as cities.
The closest riding on the Commission's map was Lethbridge-East, which shares 31% of this riding's people. On 2023 votes, the UCP's share there was 50.8%; here it is 63.4%. At a tied provincial vote, that riding would have gone NDP and this one goes UCP.
Shares of 2021 census population, measured from voting areas.
| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| UCP | 10,999 | 60.6% |
| NDP | 6,346 | 35.0% |
| All other candidates | 808 | 4.4% |
Every 2023 ballot (election day, advance, special and mobile), reassigned by voting area to the proposed boundaries. These are estimates, not results from an actual election in this riding.