Under the Independent Advisory Panel's proposed map, now before the Legislature. All results replay the 2023 election on these boundaries.
Votes here count 70% more than the average Alberta vote. On the 2023 vote it is safe (UCP +62.4), where the Commission's Lacombe-Clearwater was safe (UCP +57.0).
31,540
people (panel's estimate), -41% vs the average riding of 53,722
UCP +62.4
2023 votes on these boundaries (UCP 81.2% of the UCP+NDP vote)
UCP
if Alberta split 50/50. It changes hands when the UCP's province-wide share is below 23.2%
25,122 km²
area
One of two ridings the Legislature directed the panel to restore (Government Motion 37), following the Commission chair's alternative recommendation. It is about 41% below the average population, under the Act's exception for large, sparsely populated ridings.
How much a vote here counts
Each MLA represents a group of people. In a riding with fewer people than average, each vote carries more weight. On the panel's map, a vote here counts 1.70× the average: more than in 88 of the other 90 ridings.
2023 election map (where its residents voted in 2023)
1.17×
Commission's map (for the same residents)
1.02×
Panel's map
1.70×
The black tick marks the average (1.00×). Weight = average riding population ÷ this riding's population, using current population estimates: the panel's and the Commission's own figures, and for the 2023 ridings, 2021 census counts scaled to the same estimates. For the first two maps it is averaged over this riding's current residents. Older ridings that have grown a lot since they were drawn show low weights; that imbalance is one reason ridings are redrawn.
What changes for UCP and NDP voters
The same 2023 ballots, counted three ways: in the riding most of these residents voted in, in the closest Commission riding, and in this riding.
Voters for other parties and independents win this seat on none of the three maps. "Province-wide vote needed" is the party's share of the UCP+NDP vote across Alberta at which it would take this seat, assuming every riding moves by the same amount.
How competitive is it?
2023 election mapUCP +66.6safe
Commission's mapUCP +57.0safe
Panel's mapUCP +62.4safe
Each line shows how the riding would vote as Alberta's overall vote moves (grey: the 2023 riding most residents voted in; green: the closest Commission riding; purple: this riding). Dots mark where each would change hands.
City, town or country?
Cities 0% · Towns and villages 29% · Rural areas and First Nations 71%. Share of residents, 2021 census. Sherwood Park and Fort McMurray count as cities.
The boundary
The proposed boundary
Coloured: Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, shaded by its 2023 replay result. Dashed lines: the ridings used in the 2023 election. Click a neighbouring riding's name to open its page.
Where its people come from
The closest riding on the Commission's map was Lacombe-Clearwater, which shares 70% of this riding's people. On 2023 votes, the UCP's share there was 78.5%; here it is 81.2%.
From the 2023 election ridings
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre94%
Banff-Kananaskis5%
From the Commission's proposed ridings
Lacombe-Clearwater71%
Mountain View-Kneehill23%
Canmore-Banff6%
Shares of 2021 census population, measured from voting areas.
2023 votes on these boundaries
Party
Votes
Share
UCP
9,650
69.1%
NDP
2,235
16.0%
All other candidates
2,077
14.9%
Every 2023 ballot (election day, advance, special and mobile), reassigned by voting area to the proposed boundaries. These are estimates, not results from an actual election in this riding.
About these numbers
The proposed boundaries were rebuilt from the panel's published maps and are not official files. Rebuilt boundary: median distance to known reference lines 35.7 m; 39% of the boundary within 25 m.
"If Alberta split 50/50" shifts every riding by the same amount (a uniform swing), which real elections don't do.
Population figures are the panel's own; the composition uses 2021 census counts.
Spot an error with this riding? Corrections are welcome; see the main page.